Let’s say your sportsbook balance is at $1000 and you bet $50 per game. So if you lose the first night, you bet $100 the next, then $200, then $400, then $800 and then $1600. At this point, you’re not looking at a crazy streak. All it takes is a six-game losing streak before you’re down $600. Of course, you could start smaller at $25, but that only saves you one loss. And what if you’re betting a sport like baseball or hockey where you’re dealing with moneylines? If you have to lay juice each time – and different amounts – either your bankroll shrinks faster or your profits are smaller (say if the line is -140 instead of EVEN or -110).
There is a caveat to all of my modelling work, a small detail that I haven’t yet revealed. It is this. What I haven’t mentioned is that I had a fifth model. It was called “ask my wife”. Lovisa Sumpter is a very talented individual. She is an associate professor of mathematics education in Sweden, where we live, and a qualified yoga instructor. She also has a much better record than her husband in football betting. When she was still a student, Lovisa correctly predicted the outcome of every one of the 13 matches in the Swedish Stryktipset. The chance of getting these right by picking randomly is 1 in 3 to the power of 13 (or 1/1,594,323). Although the pay-out for her winning week was relatively small, she remains proud of being one of the few people in Sweden to “get 13 right”.
Until September last year, I had never really gambled. I’d been to the dog tracks a few times when I lived in Manchester and once went to Aintree to watch the Grand National. Some of my friends would bet on the football, and I could see how it could add an extra dimension to watching the game. But I’d never got over the entry barrier posed by opening up an account and feeding in my credit card details.
*For that kind of stuff, read the answer on bookmaker arbitrage that someone will no doubt write, presumably using several thousand fewer words than I have and including several more appealing sounding promises about the guaranteed money you’ll make. I’ve done that too, and it does work, but it’s not quite as easy as some people will have you believe and it’s hard to sustain it. You pays your money and you takes your choice.
Online betting is extremely entertaining and interesting activity – and also that´s why it´s so addictive. I think that everyone should try to do it on the higher level and don´t waste time with amateur betting, which might be fun when you do it for fun, but when you are loosing cash constantly just because of this fun, it´s not something you might be proud about – on the other hand doing it in far more advanced way than 99% of stupid people who are betting drunk in pub just for the thrill. You can actually make some awesome results when you invest your money to the right software – like Z Code System.
You can also “do it yourself” and become a handicapper. However, most, if not all, information that you come up with (widely available information) is already priced into the lines. So, it doesn’t do you much good to look up the weather forecast or the coaches’ records on primetime games or other stats such as rushing yards or goals scored. The bookies, and other smart handicappers, have already pored over all this information and it has been accounted for. But if you are a computer whiz, or good with numbers, you may be able to develop a computer program to crunch tons of numbers in order to come up with an edge. A tip here: the smaller the market, the less attention paid to it, by bookies and other gamblers. So you may have a better shot at finding an edge in a smaller sport or market such as certain props.