When you put (-400) in as the American odds, and you click convert, it tells you that the implied probability of the Dogaroos winning based on this betting line is 80%. Based on your prediction (what we will call the predicted probability), you also thought the Dogaroos had an 80% chance of winning the game. Therefore, this bet would be paying out exactly as you think that it should pay based on the likelihood of the Dogaroos winning the game.
The third model was based on a concept called expected goals. In this model, each shot a team makes is assigned a value based on historical data of shots taken in similar situations. For example, a shot from inside the box typically has a 12% probability of going in, so it contributes 0.12 to a team’s expected goals total. Shots from outside the box have only a 3% chance of going in and contribute 0.03. Summing up all expected goals scored and conceded by a team gives a good overall estimate of the quality of a team’s attack and defence that can then be used to simulate future matches. My model based on expected goals resulted in some spectacular gains early on in the season. It predicted the decline of Chelsea, but it overrated Arsenal and Liverpool. While the expected goals model didn’t lose money, it made such wild predictions that it couldn’t be relied on for a steady return.
There are some instances where there may be value in a pick that you won't want to bet on. The further that the payout odds get from zero, the bigger the value you'll need to be looking for. For example, the difference between +150 and +200 is 50. This would be a pretty big value find in our opinion. The different between +1000 and +1050 is also 50, but this would not really be a huge value find. The bet is so unlikely to happen that the risk is most likely not worth the reward. In theory, yes, you could still make this bet, but it's going to take you so many instances to overcome the variance that it's probably not worth it.
Think of buying picks from a professional handicapping service as investing in the stock market and not knowing enough about certain funds. You would enlist a broker to help you so you’re not investing your money in a Ponzi scheme. The same goes for sports betting. If you don’t have time to do your research or don’t have enough insight into the sports you want to bet on, using the services of an expert handicapper might be a good option.
Some Sharps will say to stay away from parlays altogether. I’m not going to say that. Every once in a while, I will play a parlay. Now it won’t be a 5 or team parlay or anything crazy like that. But rarely I will do a 2 or a 3 team parlay. I don’t make the bet really expecting to win. I know going in that it is a much lower percentage bet and make sure that if I win, it will be big. Amateur bettors love the big payouts from the 6-7-8 team parlays but do you know who loves parlays even more? The Bookie! There is a reason they pay out so much, it’s because they are such low percentage bets. The main difference between a sharp and an amateur is instead of betting a 5 team parlay a sharp will bet 5 separate games. If he walks away 3-2 in those 5 games he would be happy. The amateur, on the other hand, would probably hit 4 of 5 and walk away with nothing. He would then proceed to go home and slam his head into a wall for 5 hours in disgust.
What you should do instead is start by predicting how you think the game is going to go. Do this before you even look at any lines or opinions by anyone else. Why? Well, there is something known as the self-fulfilling prophecy. Basically, if you want to see something, you will subconsciously start looking for things that validate that. If you want to bet that Team A will win, you'll start noticing stats that support that viewpoint and ignore ones that don't. All of this usually happens without your brain consciously being aware of it. To avoid this, make your predictions about the game before you look and get any lines or odds in your head.
While the National Basketball Association (NBA) was once active in preventing sports betting law relaxation, current NBA Commissioner Adam Silver became the first major sports leader to break from previous administrative opposition to gambling. In 2014 he stated in a New York Times op-ed, "I believe that sports betting should be brought out of the underground and into the sunlight where it can be appropriately monitored and regulated." In 2017, with support for legalization growing, he confirmed his belief that "legalized sports betting is inevitable".
“A small number of bets were made at the erroneous price over an 18-second period. We honored all such bets on the Broncos to win the game at the accurate market price in accordance with our house rules and industry practice, which specifically address such obvious pricing errors,” FanDuel said in its statement. “We have reached out to all impacted customers and apologized for the error.”
This should probably go to number 1 to be honest but value means different things to different people. I make my own oddsline so I can see value in EVERY single race thanks to the automatically generated odds-lines for each race. Does that mean you should bet every single one? Well, no…that is where the ‘Specialise and Focus’ step comes in but if you are not backing horses at bigger odds than the market estimates their chances then you will really struggle to make a long-term profit. You could back a horse at 6/4 that should be 5/4, that is value but I would rather back a horse at 20/1 that should be 10/1. There may be longer losing runs but the payoff for me is far better. Of course this depends on how good you are at selecting long-odds shots but on Betfair you can get some crazily overpriced top-rated horses who pay 50/1 instead of the 33/1 SP for example. So don’t look for winners of races, look for overlays within the race.
Line shopping is an easy way to gain an edge. This method involves looking for sharp, trusted lines (usually from well respected, liquid books) and then finding other sites that are slow to update their lines. This can happen a lot in the last hour before game time. One book may list a team at -3 and then all of the sudden the line starts dropping, first to 2.5 and then all the way down to 2 and finally 1.5. However, while the line is at -2.5 at one book, another may still have -3. This would provide a great opportunity to take the underdog and “chase the steam.”