In this system, a number of experts who are cappers & make a living sports betting for many years, give you their predictions. The tips are based on practical experience in a mixture of diverse games in a special forum threads. They are using Zcode tools and years of their own knowledge to provide winning picks for you. If you read and follow them, you can understand how well these guys know their stuff and how good they are.
Line movement can be a tricky thing to understand, and really takes a lot of dedication to fully get it. Different things can cause line movement. Injuries, syndicates, sharp money, public money, and Big money. Finding the right time to strike on a play can make you ton more money! An easy beginners way to do this is to find a sharp book, and follow their movements. Have your plays ready. As soon as this book moves against you it's time to strike. If this sharp book never moves against your play, it may be a good idea to pass on your play. (Hint this could make a great filter)
There should be no such thing as a ‘fun’ bet – the only fun bet is one that wins you a heap of cash. Don’t bet for an ‘interest’ in a race or a football match just because your team is playing. It’s one of the biggest problems punters get into trying to win every race or over-betting for the dopamine release into your brain. Like being a junkie, it’s a short-term rush and the longer-term results are an emptier betting bank and a feeling of deflation so ignore these Twitter Tipsters that are so prevalent nowadays asking you to ‘post your slip’ or bet for Yankees, Lucky-15’s every day. Ask whether they bet all these ‘tips’ they give out, there is a reason why they don’t record their results and plug affiliate links constantly, they basically want you to lose so they earn 33% commission off your cumulative losses. It’s difficult enough to find one winner let alone 4 and the bookies will always welcome your custom. One way to really tell if you are a losing action junkie is whether you still actually have a betting account that accepts your bets.
Zcode recommends that you follow the A-B-C betting technique. That is, make a 1-unit bet. If you lose, make a 2-unit bet. If you lose that, make a 3-unit bet. If you lost that, reset and start back with your “A” bet. Using this A-B-C technique, you should come ahead about 86.5% of the time with each A-B-C series you play using Zcode. Pretty good odds, but it is a little misleading, and that’s why I wanted to clear the air now.
I also agree with you that quality of picks is more important than quantity. However, being new to the site and never having tracked my picks over a long period of time, I am attempting to grade myself and get a better understanding of which types of wagers I should make more of and which I should not. For this reason I have been limiting myself to making mostly 1 unit wagers until I gain more confidence by seeing success in specific areas.
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Value is what it's all about. If we generally make wagers where the true odds of something are better than what the bookie is offering, we will have a chance to be successful over the long-haul. If we don't do that--we will lose. It's as simple as that. For example, expert football bettors don't just sit there and say "Oh, the Patriots are gonna kill the Bills this week" and then just thoughtlessly make a bet on New England. They might feel they will win, but they determine at what threshold. They don't just blindly accept what the point-spread is without question.
These are deviations from the common rule and give you a competitive advantage. In gridiron (American football), the most common margin of difference in the final score is 7 points (equal to one touchdown plus extra point) or 3 points (one field goal.) There can be missed extra points, safeties and conversions. But, they only come into play in a fractional percentage of game outcomes. This point statistical distribution factor opens up the possibility of statistical anomalies.
Avoid betting on your hometown team if it becomes a big deal if you lose. What I mean is that it’s fine to bet on your hometown team, but not if a loss will cause you to automatically bet bigger and bigger on later games that day. Some fans become so emotionally invested that it is best to just watch the game and avoid making a bet. Another solid reason to avoid this is because most local bookies (online and on the streets) will bump the lines to account for heavy action on the hometown team, giving you a worse value.
Thats why I am even more pleased by what can I prove about ZCode System – it is completely legit and I have never met a single person that have had a problem while working with ZCode System. To be honest, I dont believe those people who claim some of the high-priced products and services are fake or not working anymore. Those are mostly people who just came up and lost some money, they got angry and they have to go and throw it on someone else. It is typical for this online comunity of “skilled marketers or investors”.
Here's what you're looking for. You're looking for bets where the implied probability is LESS than what you actually think is going to happen (your predicted probability). Remember, the sportsbook pays you out based on the likelihood of something happening. The less likely it is to happen, the more money they are going to pay you out. The more likely it is to happen, the less money they are going to pay you out when you're correct.
The first model I devised, back in September 2015, was based on an expert’s predictions. In earlier seasons, NBC journalist Joe Prince-Wright had been particularly successful in predicting the Premier League end-of-season table. So I took his weekly “Premier League picks” and used them to decide which team to back. Prince-Wright’s predictions are fun, but quickly lost money, and I had to drop him from my modelling. In general, media experts provide entertaining predictions, but don’t outperform the bookies.
*For that kind of stuff, read the answer on bookmaker arbitrage that someone will no doubt write, presumably using several thousand fewer words than I have and including several more appealing sounding promises about the guaranteed money you’ll make. I’ve done that too, and it does work, but it’s not quite as easy as some people will have you believe and it’s hard to sustain it. You pays your money and you takes your choice.
The most obvious way a bettor can use one-on-one matchups to handicap a game is to consider the matchups versus the spread. Aberrations from player averages are most common at the beginning and end of every NBA season, so it is especially important to pay attention to how each team lines up position-to-position during the doldrums of the regular season. This is another reason why it’s vital to understand a player’s up-to-date statistics, and not just have general knowledge about how a guy is performing for his team. The lack of parity at some positions in the pro league make one-on-one comparison vital to any successful pro basketball betting strategy.
Futures betting also is offered on the major events in horse racing, such as the Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Cup. In horse racing futures, if your horse does not start the race due to injury or any other reason, you lose the bet -- there are no refunds. On the other hand, the odds on your horse racing futures bet also are "locked in," regardless of the horse's odds on race day.
Negative progression systems sound big and fancy, but think about it like this: losing is always negative. In this case, you increase your stake each time you lose. You may be thinking, “Wait! Why would I increase my bet if I lose?” The idea is to make up for your loss with a win on the current bet. This method can be super successful, but be careful: If you start a losing streak, you may get in over your head.
The best games to wager on early in the season, for advantage gamblers looking to chip away at the bookmaker’s handicapping ability, are games between two teams with a lot of unknowns. Maybe one team has a new coach or a new star big man and the other is going through a variety of looks on offense. Sometimes a change as insignificant as a new owner or a rumor about a starting player counts, as the small team rosters make emotions run high.
This is probably something you already knew. However, while most people know this, they tend to neglect its importance in the name of trying to win too quickly. Allow the quantity to come naturally. If you're only able to make one or two quality bets a week initially, that's okay. As your strategy grows and your game is sharpened, you'll be able to find more edges, and the number of games you bet will increase. Do not force this under any circumstances.
Considering that the league’s best teams often perform well right out of the gate, while the cellar-dwellers are having a tough time putting together a decent starting roster, the early season is also a time when most teams will play to type – the trick here is to do enough research or gain enough basketball knowledge to understand what that type is, identify an opportunity based on what looks like a soft line at a bookmaker, and place a confident early-season wager.
Some Sharps will say to stay away from parlays altogether. I’m not going to say that. Every once in a while, I will play a parlay. Now it won’t be a 5 or team parlay or anything crazy like that. But rarely I will do a 2 or a 3 team parlay. I don’t make the bet really expecting to win. I know going in that it is a much lower percentage bet and make sure that if I win, it will be big. Amateur bettors love the big payouts from the 6-7-8 team parlays but do you know who loves parlays even more? The Bookie! There is a reason they pay out so much, it’s because they are such low percentage bets. The main difference between a sharp and an amateur is instead of betting a 5 team parlay a sharp will bet 5 separate games. If he walks away 3-2 in those 5 games he would be happy. The amateur, on the other hand, would probably hit 4 of 5 and walk away with nothing. He would then proceed to go home and slam his head into a wall for 5 hours in disgust.
The plain, hard fact is most sports gamblers lose money. And the reason for this is simple: a lack of discipline and money management. This is why Doc's Sports was the first to develop a unit system for betting sports over 39 years ago. Many services now use a system similar to ours. We know from shopping our competition that none of them have had the success that we've had over the years. As with many things in life, experience plays a big part. It doesn't matter if you're a doctor, auto mechanic, investment advisor or a sports handicapper; the longer you do something the more you learn and the fewer mistakes you make. Doc (Morey Moseman) is the founder and has been the sole owner of Doc's Sports since it opened in 1971 and has had more experience than anyone in our industry.
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